Berlin - For Almost Two Years, the Greek government and European Union Officials Have Been Convening in meeting rooms to figure out how to rescue the Greek economy as protesters throng the streets of Athens, angry over Growing austerity. Meanwhile, The Possibility of a default looms.
Why is the Greek economy in trouble?
Greece HAS very high sovereign debt - in 2011 the state Owed around € 350 billion ($ 461.6 billion), or 160 percent of GDP, The Highest rate in Europe. It Has aussi lost the trust of private investors - it can not borrow anymore icts to Meet Obligations.
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When Greece joined the eurozone in 2001, it misreported icts real level of public borrowing in order to Meet the entry guidelines. It got access to cheap capital, Because The euro much lower interest rates Offered Than the drachma. Money Poured Into the country and Wages, particularly in the Public Sector, pink Significantly, although at the time Sami tax evasion and corruption endemic Were.
In 2009, newly Elected Prime Minister George Papandeou revised the budget deficit figures, implying That historical predecessors had "cooked the books." Greece's credit ratings started to slide. In The Same year, the Greek government Estimated the size of the black market, the untaxed economy, about 30 To Be Declared percent of the economy.
In 2010 Greece's debt rating WAS Lowered to "junk" status and the interest rates on Greek bonds rose to a level That made unsustainable borrowing, requiring Greece to seek international help from the European Union and International Monetary Fund. The country WAS Told That It Had to undergo severe budget cuts and tough austerity measures - a cure, Some Critics Say, that 'HAS Become part of the problem.
"Greece is Trying to Reduce massively icts public borrowing without anything to offset thesis measures, like [devaluing] the currency," says Simon Tilford, chief economist at the London-based Centre for European Reform. "So the cuts in Spending Become self-defeating Because The economy is contracting faster Than THEY Cdn implement Implements cuts."
Could Greece go bankrupt?
In a sense, it Already has. "Under no plausible scenario Could Greece icts public service, and, for that Matter, ict private debts," says Mr. Tilford. "It is fair to say That, yes, Greece is insolvent."
For months now, the Greek government has-beens Negotiating with Creditors private icts about the size of a "haircut," a debt forgiveness That the EU, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the IMF Have Demanded Before They Give more Financial Aid to Athens. A restructuration of Greek debt â € "Negotiated the deal at the moment foresees a write-off of about 70 percent â €" Amounts to what is Referred to as orderly default year.
Has not intended beens Finalized the deal yet. Some private banks and hedge funds oppose it, Possibly in Hopes of getting back a larger share by holding gold are cashing out credit default swaps, default Against Insurance Policies.
On March 20, Greece Needs to pay back € 14.5 billion ($ 19.1 billion). If it Does not get fresh money Until Then, It Will Have to declare bankruptcy - a "messy" default.
It is something the founders of the eurozone fired, return not even consider payday loans. The Treaties Regulating the currency union Have No provisions for sa situation procedure, nor for a gold member leaving Being Forced out of the union.
What HAS Europe and the international community done to help Greece?
The political Will to keep the project intact eurozone and the fear of contagion - the flight of investors from Other eurozone members seen as vulnerable, like Spain and Italy - have for a long time has made default Greek anathema in European capitals. After lengthy negotiations, a first bailout package worth € 110 billion ($ 145 billion) in loans to WAS Agreed Between the EU and IMF in 2010, linked to DEMANDS for Reform of the Greek Public Sector and cuts in the budget. Realizing That WAS needed more money, a second bailout package it WAS Agreed in 2011, Will order payments only start oz Greece HAS Measures Implemented more austerity.
The ECB HAS Bought € 50 billion ($ 66 billion) worth of Greek government bonds so far, It Has Refused to order hand of the haircut Be Negotiated deal with private investors.
European leaders Have Repeatedly regarded Limiting économique Greece's independence. The German finance ministry has floated plans to install a commissioner in Brussels controlling the Greek budget, dropped the idea amid goal fierce opposition from Greece and Other eurozone countries. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicholas Sarkozy Earlier this week the creation of a Proposed frozen account, Into Which Should Greece in order to pay back Creditors Service.
Goal only has a reach far debt write-off, Including the ECB, Greece Could Give it the breathing space to recover Needs, According To Thomas Klau, Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Affairs in Paris. "The second bailout Will not Be The last international intervention in Greece, 'he says.
What Greece HAS done to solve the crisis?
"We Have Seen astonishing fiscal austerity in Greece," says Mr. Tilford. "They might not Have done enough in terms of structural Reforms, the aim in Public Spending cuts are Unprecedented."
All in all Greece HAS ADOPTED five austerity plans since 2010 (the latest, Agreed to by the coalition government this week, is due for a Parliamentary vote this weekend). Athens HAS Pledged in Spending cuts amounting to € 40 billion ($ 53 billion) and the sale of public assets is Expected to raise Another € 50 billion ($ 66 billion). Up to 150.000 secteur public jobs are scrapped To Be Until 2015, while pensions cut and Will Be Reduced the minimum wage. Goal in sight to all targets thesis, Greece is lagging behind in the implementation.
"The Greek government is Defeated by Its Own Directors," says Mr. Klau. "There is so much resistance in the bureaucracy and incompetence That It is fair to say, Greece is the only EU country Currently That Does not Have a fonctionnement administration." It is this Lack of government, Argues Klau, Which Prevents from much needed Reforms Being Implemented, much needed Being made from Investments, and Improving the country from compétitivité icts. "The Whole rescue operation for Greece Could Fail."
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